China Is Suddenly a Leading Exporter of Armed Drones
Richard A. Bitzinger Monday, Jan. 18, 2016
With a regularity almost approaching that of the tides, there has recently been a frenzy of
fevered pronouncementsabout
China becoming a major arms exporter—and
perhaps even giving serious competition to the traditionally
front-running United States. Most of this is hype, but there is some
truth to all the mania.
For the most part, China’s arms industry does not seriously threaten
U.S. arms exports, at least not in terms of quantity. According to the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China garnered only
5 percent of the total global arms market
from 2010 to 2014—good enough to rank third among the world’s arms
exporters, but still well behind the United States, with 31 percent of
the global market, and Russia, with 27 percent. Moreover, the bulk of
China’s recent weapons shipments—nearly 70 percent—went to just three
countries: Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
That said, there are some areas where China is breaking new ground in
the global arms trade, both in terms of new customers and new products.
It has sold frigates to Algeria, trainer jets to Bolivia and Venezuela,
and anti-ship missiles to Indonesia. More troubling, however, China has
quite suddenly
become a key exporter
of armed drones, also referred to as unmanned combat aerial vehicles,
or UCAVs. It’s troubling, and not only because this is a potentially
lucrative segment of the arms business that is likely to grow
significantly over the coming decades and therefore challenge U.S.
exports. Armed drones are also a growing proliferation concern, given
that they are extremely effective and increasingly the weapon of choice
on many battlefields.
Only a handful of countries besides the U.S. and China currently
manufacture dedicated armed drones. Moreover, China is one of the few
countries, along with the U.S., Israel, Pakistan and, recently, the
United Kingdom, whose drones have actually been used in combat. In early
December, the Iraqi military used a Chinese-built Caihong or CH-4B
drone armed with a laser-guided missile to attack an Islamic State
target. It was
Iraq’s first-ever drone strike.
How did China become a trailblazer in the global sale of armed drones?
So far, it has exported two models, the Caihong and the Chengdu
Pterodactyl or Wing Loong. Both bear a striking resemblance to two
leading U.S. drones, the MQ-1B Predator and the MQ-9 Reaper. The
Predator was originally a surveillance drone, later modified to carry
Hellfire laser-guided missiles. The Reaper is a dedicated
“hunter-killer” drone, in the defense industry’s terms.
![[IMG]](https://therearenosunglasses.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/wing-loong-drone.jpg) |
| Pterodactyl or Wing Loong |
The Wing Loong, designed and built by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry
Group, or CAIG, is roughly the same size as the Predator, about 29 feet
long, with a wingspan of 45 feet. It carries a much smaller payload,
however, of about 220 pounds, compared to the Predator’s 1,100 pounds.
Yet it costs about $1 million per unit, or just a quarter of the price
of a Predator. It has been sold to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and
Saudi Arabia.
The Caihong, meanwhile, was developed by the China Aerospace Science and
Technology Corporation, or CASC, and it is perhaps more disconcerting
as a weapons platform than the Wing Loong. The original CH-3 version,
which has been sold to Nigeria, appears to be relatively ineffective as a
combat drone; at least one
crashed in Nigeria,
ostensibly during operations against Boko Haram militants. The CH-4,
however, is more or less a clone of the MQ-9 Reaper, and much more
capable than the CH-3. It carries a relatively small payload, about 770
pounds, but larger, improved versions are on the way. In addition to
Iraq, the CH-4 has been sold to Egypt.
More importantly, a new, larger version of the Caihong, the CH-5, is
being readied for market. The CH-5 has a wingspan of 66 feet and a
takeoff weight of about 3 tons. It can carry a maximum payload of nearly
2,000 pounds—about two and a half times more than previous Caihong
drones.
Even more ominous is the fact that China is
reportedly developing
a purpose-built, stealth drone, dubbed the Lijian, or the Sharp Sword.
Although still a proof-of-concept prototype, the Lijian first flew in
2013 and could be the precursor to a family of Chinese stealth combat
drones.

Lijian, or Sharp Sword
At the same time, however, operating armed drones has its own built-in
challenges. The command and control of drones, let alone combat drones,
is quite demanding. The support network behind drone use is enormous,
especially for long-distance, long-endurance operations. Drones often
require satellites for target acquisition and strike-control, as well as
secure data links; without satellites, drones need line-of-sight data
links or relay aircraft to remain in contact with remote operators.
Pilots don’t come cheap, either: They have to be as skilled as a pilot
of a manned aircraft, and the fatigue factor of remotely operating a
drone can be high.
Moreover, drones have an incredibly high loss rate. The U.S. Air Force acknowledged in 2009 that it had
lost 70 Predator drones—at
the time a third of its Predator fleet—in air crashes during its short
operational history, mostly in Iraq and Afghanistan. Fifty-five were
lost to equipment failure, operator error or weather, while four had
been shot down by enemy forces and 11 more were lost to accidents on
combat missions. In 2012, Bloomberg reported that the Predator, Reaper
and Global Hawk were
“the most accident-prone aircraft in the Air Force fleet.”
Nevertheless, these problems aside, armed drones are here to stay. More
nations are acquiring them and more are building them, making combat
drones a significant proliferation concern in the near future. The U.S.
is a major drone-producing country, but it has
considerable controls
over the export of these systems. China, on the other hand, has
relatively few scruples when it comes to what kind of military wares it
sells and who buys them. Armed drones are one area of the global arms
market where it could carve out quite a lucrative niche for itself, to
the potential detriment of the U.S. and its allies.
Richard A. Bitzinger is a senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School
of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in
Singapore, where his work focuses on military and defense issues
relating to the Asia-Pacific.
![[IMG]](http://steeljawscribe.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/dark_sword_prc_uav.jpg) |
| Dark Sword |
Caihong CH-4B drone armed with a laser-guided missile fight in Iraq