On December 18, 2014, the 6th J-20 stealth fighter prototype took off
from the Chengdu Aviation Corporation factory. At six airframes, that
makes the J-20 the most numerous non-American stealth fighter in the
world (the Russian T-50 PAK-FA has only four airworthy examples, after
an accident in June 2014 destroyed the fifth model). So far, 2014 has
seen the debut flights of four J-20 fighters (2011, 2012, 2013 and
2015).
Fifth generation fighters are commonly accepted to have a stealthy
airframe, an active electronically scanned radar, networked sensors and
supercruise engines (supercruise engines provide enough velocity by
themselves to reach supersonic speeds, without using fuel thirsty
afterburners). Currently, the J-20 uses an advanced version of the
Russian Al-31F, which is unlikely to be fast enough to supercruise (to
be fair, the F-35 doesn't supercruise either).
2015 features slight improvements to the airframe, compared to 2011 and
2012, with changed tail booms around the engine nozzles. The changes to
the stingers are likely to accommodate rearwards facing radar, similar
to the secondary radar arrangements on the T-50 PAK-FA. Having
secondary radar arrays located on the rear and side will give a fighter
360 degree radar coverage, allowing for greater situational awareness
and the ability to shoot long ranged radar guided missiles against
pursuing aircraft. 2013 and 2015 both have retractable inflight
refueling probes located alongside the cockpit, to extend their
operational range.
Coming less than three weeks after the fifth prototype, "2013", first
flew on November 29, 2014, the rapid production of J-20 stealth fighters
suggests that China's flagship fighter program is entering Low Rate
Initial Production (LRIP). LRIP is the stage in the development of
military platforms where the design is essentially frozen, thus allowing
the manufacturing to begin gaining experience by producing small
numbers of the finished design (the F-35 is currently on LRIP Batch 8).
The rapid production of four similar fighters within a year suggests
that China has settled on the final design of the J-20, and it is likely
that production of the first squadron could happen in 2015. The first
squadron of 20-24 fighters would be produced in 2015 and early 2016,
going to the China Flight Test Evaluation Regiment to develop tactics
for the J-20's advanced capabilities. Assuming things go to schedule,
the first J-20 squadron would be ready for combat in 2017.
A 2016-2017 introduction places the J-20's debut in the same window as
the Russian PAK-FA fighter, as well as the USMC F-35B and USAF F-35A.
More importantly, the J-20 would make the PLAAF the first Asian air
force to have a fifth generation fighter, definitively shifting the
balance of indigenous Asian air superiority to China for the first time
in history. Future iterations of the J-20 would be equipped with the
supercruise capable WS-15 turbofan engine, and possibly advanced
systems like directed energy weapons (lasers) and networked UAVs.
F-35 highlights for 2014
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