The destructive power of nuclear bombs has been seared into our collective memory, thanks to archival images of the devastation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. There’s the blast itself, and then all the radioactive fallout to contend with. A new interactive map shows what the damage from fallout would be if nuclear bombs were dropped on target cities today.
It’s the result of a collaboration between the
Future of Life Institute
(FLI)—a volunteer organization dedicated to decreasing existential
threats to the human race co-founded by MIT physicist Max Tegmark—and
Alex Wellerstein, a science historian at the Stevens Institute for
Technology in New Jersey
who developed the hugely popular
NUKEMAP a few years ago. (Wellerstein was also the technical consultant for the stellar—and
tragically cancelled—TV series,
Manhattan.)
A few months ago, the
National Security Archive released a 1956 US
list of 1,100 nuclear targets in the Soviet Union, Eastern Bloc, China, and North Korea. FLI
digitized the entire dataset,
and approached Wellerstein about adapting NUKEMAP to the digitized
targets. He realized he could use the new data to model nuclear fallout
and possible casualties from detonated bombs.
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| Future of Life Institute’s digitized target map. Image: Future of Life/NUKEMAP |
Wellerstein ran two equally terrifying scenarios. First, he wondered
what would have happened if bombs were dropped on all 1,100 targets on a
single day: April 29, 2016. Second, he simulated how the direction of
the radioactive fallout would change if bombs had been dropped on those
targets on three consecutive days (April 29, April 30, and May 1, 2016).
There are many different factors that influence the extent of nuclear
fallout, notably weather conditions and the size of the bomb.
Wellerstein was able to draw on data from
OpenWeatherMap
to give his model realistic weather conditions on the days in question.
But it also matters if the bomb detonates high in the air or on the
ground; with the former, there is far less downwind fallout.
“This is because the fallout that makes the distinctive,
high-radiation plume downwind of the weapon is largely made up of dirt
or debris particles that have been sucked up into the radioactive
fireball, and ‘fall out’ rather soon (within a few hours) after the
blast,” Wellerstein told Gizmodo. “If the fireball avoids vaporizing
dirt or debris, the radioactive products (the remains of the split
atoms) stay hot and light longer, and thus in the upper atmosphere
longer. They have longer to decay before they fall to the Earth, so the
really radioactive stuff ‘burns out’ sooner and diffuses over a larger
area.”
All the heavy fallout plumes in his visualization assume surface
bursts, when in reality, there would likely be a mix of surface and
airbursts, depending on the target. Bunkers or airfields, for instance,
need heavier pressure to destroy, so those targets would probably
require surface bursts. In contrast, homes and civilian buildings
wouldn’t needed as much pressure, so airbursts would suffice for those
kinds of targets.
There would also probably be more than one nuclear bomb per target in
reality, since the military would expect that not every bomb would
reach its target. NUKEMAP’s estimator assumes single detonations. So the
really large casualty estimates in particular should be taken with a
grain of salt, since there is likely to be some double counting of
victims. But it’s probably a good ballpark figure if you add in
longer-term casualties from fallout and the destruction of crucial
infrastructures.
Those caveats aside, Wellerstein thinks the project still manages to
illustrate the scope and magnitude of nuclear fallout from bombs dropped
on those targets. Lest you think this is just an academic exercise: the
declassified 1956 list of targets probably isn’t much different from
the current US list,
according to the FLI.
And while most nuclear nations agree that less than 300 nuclear weapons
are sufficient to achieve deterrence, the US alone has about 1900
warheads ready for deployment within 30 minutes. Russia’s not far
behind. The threat of
nuclear winter is closer than you might think.
“Despite the fact that nuclear weapons issues are in the newspaper
almost daily, for most Americans they have sunk into the background of
things,” said Wellerstein. “A lot of this happened when the Cold War
ended and we all congratulated ourselves on ‘winning.’ But the weapons
have stuck around. I think people are starting to remember that, bit by
bit. I like to think my work is playing a small part in that.”
Jennifer Ouellette [
Motherboard and
Nuclear Society]