North Korea Might Have Far More Nukes Than Previous Estimates

Worse than that—Pyongyang is building more

North Korea has up to four times as many nukes than previous estimates, and is working to master placing nuclear warheads on missiles, according to an influential Website tracking North Korea’s nuclear developments.

This new assessment of Kim Jong Un’s nuclear arsenal revises it upward—way upward. Previously, most estimates reckoned that Pyongyang had only a handful of large, unwieldy, possibly unreliable nukes incapable of fitting onto ballistic missiles. These old estimates may be dangerously wrong.

Kim Jong Un / AP

Joel Wit is a former State Department official and editor of the prominent Website 38 North. On Feb. 24, Wit claimed that Pyongyang has 10 to 16 nukes, much higher than the widely-estimated four to seven nuclear weapons in North Korea’s arsenal.

Worse, Wit estimated North Korea’s rate of fissile material production should lead to dramatic increase in the country’s future nuclear weapon stockpile. Wit claimed that by the end of the decade, North Korea will be able to deploy 20 nuclear weapons … at the very minimum.

A more likely scenario puts Pyongyang’s stockpile at 50 nukes by 2020, and under the worst case scenario, up to 100 nukes.

North Korea could possess 100 nuclear weapons by 2020, warn US researchers.

Pyongyang’s largest nuclear weapons have an estimated explosive yield of 50 kilotons. That’s about three times the power of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima and killed 135,000 people. A 50-kiloton atomic bomb dropped on a city as dense as Seoul could result in 269,000 fatalities and more than one million injuries.

Further, Wit projected that North Korea was much further along in developing nuclear warheads than previously believed. By 2020, Pyongyang should be able to install miniaturized warheads on short-range Nodong and long-range Taepodong-2 missiles.

The Nodong and the Taepodong-2 are capable of striking targets throughout Asia, while the latter might be able to reach as far as Alaska.

North Koreans rally on March 7, 2013. Jon Chol Jin/AP photo.

To add to the worries, North Korea is developing missile-carrying submarines and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Which poses a befuddling question.

Why would the impoverished country work on such weapons if it has relatively few nuclear bombs, and is unable to squeeze them down small enough to fit on missiles? If Wit is correct, it’s because North Korea anticipates having enough miniaturized warheads to put at least some of them to sea.

On Jan. 23, North Korea tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile, according to the Washington Free Beacon. American military ships and aircraft observed the missile, which analysts named the KN-11. North Korea tested the missile from a ground platform.

The United States’ intelligence community assigns the “KN” prefix to North Korean rockets and missiles. KN-02, for example, is likely to a copy of the Soviet SS-21. A short-range tactical weapon, North Korea could launch the KN-02 at bridges, ammunition dumps and airfields not far behind enemy lines.

But prior to the January test, nobody outside of U.S. intelligence had even heard of the KN-11, leaving many North Korea watchers scratching their heads.

One possibility is that the KN-11 is a descendant of the obsolete Soviet SS-N-5 missile—one of the USSR’s first submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Soviet Golf-class submarines regularly carried the SS-N-5s during patrols.

North Korea allegedly received 10 Golf-II class submarines in the 1990s, ostensibly for scrap. The question is—how much did the North learn about submarine-launched ballistic missiles from these submarines? We may soon find out.

South Korean passengers watch TV news reporting North Korea's apparent nuclear test

An annotated satellite photo indicating signs of new activity at the 5 MWe

Plutonium Production Reactor at North Korea's Nyongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center

This activity may also explain why the U.S. is eager to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system to South Korea. The THAAD system uses a hit-to-kill interceptor to destroy incoming ballistic missile warheads at ranges of up to 125 miles.

The U.S. has deployed THAAD to protect the Hawaiian Islands and Guam, and has requested permission to deploy THAAD to South Korea.

Seoul has stalled on the deployment, and many South Koreans have objected that it would put the country on the front lines of a destabilizing U.S. missile defense shield. China has voiced objections to basing THAAD so close to its borders.

THAAD missile launch. Department of Defense photo

There’s one overriding reason why Pyongyang wants nukes—and lots of them. A large nuclear stockpile, and the means to deliver it, leads to an independent and secure North Korea.

In other words, the U.S. and South Korea couldn’t consider military action against the North without triggering a nuclear reprisal.

The U.S. also couldn’t use coercion to lure a nuclear-armed North Korea to the diplomatic bargaining table. Pyongyang, of course, will still want reunification with the South—on its own terms.

Kim Jong Un may calculate that having nuclear weapons makes him safer, but the opposite may be true. If North Korea continues to provoke South Korea with attacks such as the 2010 sinking of the South Korean corvette ROKS Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, it may start a crisis that it cannot control.

At a certain point, the U.S.—and possibly China—will have to decide whether or not the entire region is safer without North Korea. Are the risks entailed in removing the nuclear threat worth the reward? If the answer is yes, the next step is that the North Korean leadership, and its nuclear weapons, will simply cease to exist.

That, and what comes next, will be terrifying, unexplored territory.

The 38 North report is a significant revision of North Korea’s capabilities. It should scare people. If true, it has dire consequences for the U.S., South Korea and Japan. South Korean leaders, in particular, have dragged their feet on constructing a ballistic missile defense shield.

At the very minimum, the report represents a road map to what North Korea wants. A more dire possibility is that the minimum is fading quickly in the rear-view mirror, and the reality is that we live in a far more dangerous world than we believed just two weeks ago.

by KYLE MIZOKAMI. medium.com

Turbofan-Powered-Simulator (TPS) negative thrust test

Succeeds in TPS negative thrust wind tunnel test

China’s first Turbofan-Powered-Simulator (TPS) negative thrust test achieved a complete success in a wind tunnel of 8 m * 6 m in the Low Speed Aerodynamics Institute (LSAI) of the China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center (CARDC) on February 26, 2015.

Results show that this test technique works very well to simulate the various power output states of the engine, so as to study systematically the impact of the engine on the aerodynamic characteristics of the aircraft and acquire the precise data to meet the development demands.

The success of such test marks that China has been capable of conducting TPS positive and negative thrust wind tunnel tests, which is of great significance to China’s research and development of aircraft, especially large aircraft.

It is learnt that the TPS is an indispensable experiment for large Turbofan engines. Since the power output of the engine has an impact on the aerodynamic characteristics of the aircraft, the wind tunnel test is internationally recognized as the best way to verify and optimize the design of the aerodynamic shape and engine of the aircraft.

The TPS wind tunnel test is the most complicated part of the low speed wind tunnel test technique. The LSAI of CARDC has been committed to such research since the end of last century, and has successfully completed China’s first TPS positive thrust wind tunnel test in 2007.

Compared with the positive thrust simulation, the negative thrust simulation has more signals to test and monitor, so it has a higher requirement on the monitoring alarm system and the miniaturization of test instrument. With the approval of China's large aircraft project, the establishment of a matched set of TPS negative thrust wind tunnel test technique is a task of top priority.

The LSAI of CARDC started the TPS negative thrust research project in 2009. After 6 years’ efforts, they finally succeed in completing the TPS negative thrust test in a wind tunnel of 8 m * 6 m now.
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Parade at Wagah Border (parody ad)

Iran's navy sinks mock-up of US aircraft carrier Nimitz during Exercises

Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards staged war games in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, including a gunboat attack on a model U.S. warship, in Tehran's latest display of military muscle in a Gulf shipping channel vital to world oil exports.

The Shi'ite Muslim Islamic Republic sees the Gulf, between Iran and the Sunni Arab states, as its own backyard and believes it has a legitimate interest in expanding its influence there.

A ceremony marking the exercises was attended by commanders of the Guards, an influential military force led by anti-Western hawks, as well as by parliament speaker Ali Larijani.

"With attention to the situation in the region, we have noticeably expanded the defense budget of the armed forces to ensure the stable security of the region," Larijani told a news conference before the exercises, according to Fars News.

Blow up stationary US aircraft carrier Nimitz with no air defenses

Korean Broadcasting System shows imaginary Dongfeng 21 missile group destroying aircraft carrier

Dokdo-class amphibious assault ships of the South Korea Navy

Iran Stages Giant Attack on Mock Aircraft Carrier

Tehran plans to swarm U.S. ships with missiles and speedboats

Iran has carried out a massive attack on a mock version of an American Nimitz-class aircraft carrier. Tehran wanted everyone to know about it—state TV broadcasted the military exercise live.

It’s a revealing look at Iranian naval assault tactics, involving several waves of ships backed by helicopters and shore-launched missiles. The timing isn’t a coincidence. The United States and Iran are deadlocked over a deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear program.

The Iranians built the giant, 1:1-scale mock-up of the carrier on top of a barge almost one year ago. Photos released from Iranian news agencies on Feb. 25 now show it as a smoldering wreck. The missiles Iran fired at it are very real.

But don’t panic. The exercise—known as Great Prophet 9—didn’t factor in American escort warships and warplanes responsible for defending real carriers. It was mostly just for show.

The exercise occurred near Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz. On the island, Mohammad Ali Jafari—the chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps—and the head of the conservative parliament watched from stands.

First, IRGC navy speedboats performed a mining operation to isolate the “carrier” and limit its maneuverability. Dozens of small speedboats—each armed with an M-08 contact mine—swarmed around the mock up. Iranian state television claimed “a vast area was mined in under 10 minutes.”

During the second phase, the speedboats attacked the giant ship with 107-millimeter rockets. These are small rockets, and likely couldn’t sink a warship the size of an aircraft carrier.

But Iran could intend this tactic as a means to disable critical self-defense systems, such as radars, Phalanx CIWS self-defense cannons and missile launchers.

Next, speedboats armed with small cruise missiles—likely Chinese-made C-704 anti-ship cruise missiles—attacked the ship. These fast speedboats fired a barrage of 12 cruise missiles toward the mock Nimitz.

The third phase included a barrage of heavy, shore-launched anti-ship missiles. Iran launched two cruise missiles and two ballistic missiles toward the barge in a coordinated attack.

Above—the mock-up carrier

The mock-up burns. Iranian TV and state media photos

Iranian speedboats.

The shore-launched cruise missiles were Iranian-made Noor missiles, copies of Chinese C-802 missiles produced under license. The ballistic missiles were Fateh-100 variants fitted with target-seeking infrared nose cameras. At least one of those missed its target.

The fourth phase was an unconventional attack … even by IRGC standards. A commercial Bell 206 helicopter fired a C-704K anti-ship cruise missile from between its skids.

The last phase involved ramming a remotely-controlled suicide boat packed with more than 1,000 kilograms of high explosives into the mock up.

Jafari directly threatened the U.S. Navy in an interview after the attack. He said that it only takes five minutes for IRGC missiles to sink American aircraft carriers. Five hundred speed boats made a parade in the Strait of Hormuz following the exercise.

But in a real encounter, it’s unlikely that such a scenario would succeed. To reach and flank a U.S. aircraft carrier—and mine the surrounding area—Iran’s speed boats would also have to fight past the flattop’s advanced escort warships.

Carriers don’t go anywhere without escorts. And that wasn’t part of the exercise.

Iran also didn’t provide any substantial air defenses for its own ships. A defending carrier is unlikely to sit idle when under attack. In a real battle, U.S. Marines with Mark V speedboats armed with Javelin anti-tank missiles could also provide a defense shield for the American fleet.

But the use of commercial helicopters is concerning. Iran’s military has worked on flying swarms of small aircraft for some time.

Another possibility is that Iran doesn’t intend to use helicopters in an actual attack on a carrier, but is broadcasting its ability to use helicopters against other targets—such as unprepared U.S. ships abroad, akin to the suicide-boat attack on the destroyer USS Cole more than 14 years ago.

The question is—why practice attacking an American carrier right now? Simple. It was an impressive show of force aimed to affect ongoing nuclear talks with Washington.

From the negotiations in Geneva to a disastrous war in Syria, the Iranian regime’s plans to save its sinking economy and preserve its strategic ally in the Middle East are going down in flames.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry recently said the U.S. is ready to abandon negotiations aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions. Syrian troops are carrying out a desperate offensive to encircle Aleppo. At least 150 Syrian troops and an IRGC general have died in the offensive.

To have any hope of holding the U.S. to the negotiations, Tehran has to remind the world what could happen if talks break down.

by JASSEM AL SALAMI. medium.com

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Al Jazeera to leak spy files
Al Jazeera, also known as Aljazeera and JSC, is a Doha-based broadcaster owned by the Al Jazeera Media Network, which is funded by the House of Thani, the ruling family of Qatar. To be leaked: Israel's Mossad, Britain's MI6, Russia's FSB, Australia's ASIO and South Africa's SSA and Sudan's NISS

Pakistan Media claiming Balochistan Liberation Army has been eliminated

Taiwan's Airforce published photos for Chinese New Year 2015

South Korean FA-50

F-22 Raptors during Red Flag

Y-8Q Submarine Hunting Plane Has A Giant Stinger

Y-8Q in Color. www.top81.cn

The Y-8Q joins the mile-high sub-hunting club.

The Chinese Naval Air Force gets its first operational Y-8Q heavy submarine hunting aircraft, after several years of flight testing. Painted in the standard PLANAF grey as opposed to the bright yellow primer seen on the pair of prototypes, the Y-8Q will likely show up all around East Asian waters after the Chinese flight crews learn how to fully exploit the limits of their new technology.

China is making serious efforts to correct its longstanding deficiency in aerial Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), introducing the Shaanxi Y-8Q (also designated as the Y-8GX6) aircraft painted in the blue-gray People's Liberation Army Navy Air Force (PLANAF) colors into operation. Previously, two Y-8Q prototypes had been flying for the past several years as part of a rigorous testing and training regimen. Until this month, China's only long-range aerial ASW capability came from three Harbin SH-5 seaplanes, which are nearly thirty years old.
The Y-8Q is designed to overcome Chinese ASW deficiencies that would cripple Chinese naval and civilian maritime activity in war. Some of its technology, at least on the surface, compares favorably to the U.S. P-3C Orion and P-8 Poseidon, and the Japanese P-1. The Y-8Q's most distinctive feature is its seven-meter-long Magnetic Anomaly Detector (MAD) boom, which detects the magnetic signature of enemy submarines' metal hulls as the Y-8Q flies over them. Since MAD performance correlates to size, and it's seven-meter MAD boom is arguably the largest of its kind among airplanes, the PLAN would have a fine weapon for hunting otherwise stealthy submarines.

Y-8Q MAD. escobar via Sinodefense Forum

The Y-8Q's MAD boom on its tail is possibly the largest one mounted on an aircraft. The MAD is located on a boom in order to minimize electromagnetic interference from the Y-8Q itself, as the MAD detects any magnetic signatures from the metallic hulls of submarines lurking beneath the waves.

The Y-8Q also has an electro-optical turret forward of its bomb bay, which has day, night and infrared cameras to hunt the heat signatures and wakes of small watercraft, unmanned vehicles, and submarines (especially snorkels and periscopes). Right under cockpit is a large radome that, in addition to detecting submarine periscopes and wakes, can provide targeting data via satellite link to Chinese aircraft and warships when the Y-8Q finds enemy warships. The Y-8Q can also drop a hundred sonobuoys to provide real time sonar coverage of seawater expanses.

Y-8Q Packing. escobar via Sinodefense Forum

This photo gives us a good view of the Y-8Q's sensors, including the electro-optical turret (the white sphere forward of the bomb bays, similar in size and function to the one found on the Reaper drone), and the gray radome under the cockpit.

SQ-5 Sonobuoys. Chinese Military Aviation

The Y-8Q can carry at least a hundred sonobuoys to provide blanket sensor coverage over a patch of ocean the size of Rhode Island. Other Chinese ASW platforms, like the Z-18 helicopter, also carry these sonobuoys.

The exact weapons capacity of the plane's internal bomb bay is not yet public, but one estimate is that the Y-8Q can carry probably over 10 tons. (By comparison, the Y-8 transport carries 20 tons of cargo.) Likely weapons loadouts include torpedoes like the Yu-7, sea mines and anti-ship missiles. The Y-8Q's large size and sensors could also allow it to be a command center for underwater unmanned vehicles (UUVs) like the Haiyan glider that would guard sectors of the ocean floor while the Y-8Q flies off elsewhere.

Haiyan UUV. China News

The Haiyan UUV is an underwater glider, which can dive under 1,500m below the ocean surface, for up to 30 days. These 70kg drones (or future militarized versions) could be deployed enmass by Y-8Qs to provide a quick but long-term sensor solution, in areas like the Taiwan Straits, against enemy submarines during war time.

Since the Y-8Q is extending Anti-Access/Area Denial operations underwater, it is almost a given that China is going to invest in future ASW methods. In the future, the Y-8Q may be equipped with more exotic technologies like LIDAR (which uses laser beams to penetrate water to detect objects), hard kill anti-torpedo systems, acoustic signals intelligence and radiation detection (identify radiation from nuclear reactors) that Chinese scientists are already beginning to research.

ASW Attack Missile. Navy Recognition

This long range anti-submarine rocket is a proposal by Poly Technologies, a Chinese industrial conglomerate, that was first unveiled in September 2014 at a South African arms show. The ASW rocket uses a heavy WS series artillery rocket to fire a light torpedo (possibly a 500kg Yu-7) over 100 km away at enemy submarines that have been detected by a sensor network. A Y-8Q could act as a command center for Chinese UUVs and long range anti-submarine rockets to effectively deny large areas of water to enemy submarines without placing Chinese submarines or warships in danger.

The Y-8Q will become a significant part of China's emerging ASW operations. Its 5,000km range, wide sensor and weapon range and massive payload will exponentially increase Chinese security against enemy submarines off its coasts and into the East and South China Seas. When combined with other ASW assets, such as underwater drones, missile launched torpedoes and sonar towing Type 056 corvettes and Type 54A Frigatte, it could make current and planned regional investment into submarines by China's neighbors more of a risky proposition.

It's Also Great with Kids!. Andreas Rupprecht, from cgyx.com

The first Y-8Q, "731", also pulled duty as a babysitter for these Chinese toddlers during art class. While it would be highly unusual in either China or the USA to allow civilians such close access to a sensitive military prototype, its rather unlikely that these preschoolers would expose defense secrets with Crayon and paper.

By Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer. Popular Science

J-20 No. 2015 test flights continue again

Robot Guard Balls

http://www.popsci.com/sites/popsci.com/files/styles/medium_1x_/public/guardbot.jpg?itok=YcSLh-V5

Scout SV : The Future Of British Warfare

The Future Of British Warfare Is This Modest Tanklet

Development moves forward on a new family of armored scouts

Scout SV From The Front. General Dynamics

In the future, when the United Kingdom goes to war, it will do so with small, tank-like vehicles. Last month, the U.K.'s Ministry of Defense approved the next stage of development for the General Dynamics Scout Specialist Vehicle. From the body of the Scout, the U.K. plans to build and use a family of vehicles.
For all but the most technically minded observers, the Scout is exactly what it looks like: a tank, complete with gun inside a turret on top and an armored body. But appearances here are a tad deceiving. The Scout’s 40mm main gun is fine for a smaller vehicle but dwarfed by the 120mm main cannons of tanks like the M1 Abrams. And, while the Scout will do the jobs of a lighter tank, it will weigh almost three times as much as the light armored vehicle it's replacing. The main version will do exactly what the name implies: scouting ahead of the main force, including in places where it's safer to be inside an armored chassis. Besides the scout version, the U.K. plans on using some of these tanks as repair vehicles, mobile command centers, armored personnel carriers, and several other roles.
The Scout will have several other defensive features, such as sound sensors, laser warnings, and various electronic countermeasures. It isn’t quite like DARPA’s vision for a tank that protects itself by having less armor, but it does use a hybrid approach, combining a tough exterior with modern advances.
Of course, what starts as a scout vehicle doesn’t always stay just a scout vehicle. If the Scout passes another review later this year, it’s expected to enter service with the United Kingdom around 2020.
By Kelsey D. Atherton. Popular Science
Take another look at the Scout SV below:

Scout SV Prototype. General Dynamics UK

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MQ-4C Triton Unmanned Aerial System for Australia

WS-20 Aircraft Engine Takes To The Sky

WS-20 Test Flight. www.top81.cn

The WS-20 engine is the one on the inner port (left side) of this Il-76 testbed. The China Flight Test Evaluation (CFTE) has an Il-76 for high altitude testing of engines, such as the WS-10 and WS-20. The WS-20 is wider and bulkier than the D-30 engines powering the IL-76, since it has a higher bypass ratio (meaning a wider fan) for fuel efficiency.

China's most powerful aircraft engine, the WS-20, is getting closer to finishing its tests. With a power output of 14 tons, the WS-20 will replace the less powerful and less efficient Russian D-30KP, which has only 10.5 tons of thrust. The WS-20 turbofan has been flying on this Il-76 test aircraft since 2014, and it's likely that aerial testing will wrap up in late 2015.

WS-20. bbs.huanqiu.com

The WS-20 turbofan engine can deliver up to 14 tons of thrust, which makes it comparable to the CFM-56 engine with powers Airbus 320 and Boeing 737s.

China has made progress in replacing foreign engines for its fighter programs, but it still relies on the D-30KP turbofan to power subsonic aircraft such as the Y-20 heavy transport and H-6K bomber. The WS-20 is believed to derive its engine core from the WS-10A turbofan engine, which powers the Shenyang J-11B and J-16 strike fighters.

Y-20 Comparision. green-stone13.livejournal.com

This speculative CGI compares the current Y-20 prototype with the smaller D-30 engines at the bottom, while the more powerful and efficient WS-20 engined Y-20 is at the top.

The WS-20 entering into Chinese service would provide performance boosts to the Y-20, increasing its payload to 66 tons from the prototype's 50 tons. That would give the ability to fly heavy battle tanks and missile launchers across the Asian continent, as well as a larger Y-20-based aerial tanker. The WS-20 could also be a domestic powerplant for military derivatives of the C919 jetliner, which would be used for airborne warning and control, and anti-submarine missions.

By Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer. Popular Science

The US/UK spy agencies’ phone-hacking scandal

US and British spy agencies successfully hacked the world’s largest SIM card manufacturer. The hack allowed the spy agencies to potentially monitor the calls, texts, and emails of billions of mobile users around the world. They essentially stole the encryption keys used to protect the privacy of mobile communication, which essentially allowed the spy agencies to sidestep the need to for a warrant or a wiretap. Erin weighs in.

Then, Edward sits down with Jim Rickards – chief global strategist at West Shore Funds and author of “The Death of Money.” Jim tells us why the US dollar is so strong and gives us his take on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments on the Fed’s policy decisions being data dependent.

After the break, Boom Bust producer Bianca Facchinei takes a look at a new report on lifetime earnings by the New York Federal Reserve and what it means for millennials – most of which are already saddled with student loan debt. Afterwards, Boom Bust producer Melissa Kolpak reports on the app economy and gives us her take on the most helpful apps.

And in The Big Deal, Erin and Edward are talking about the latest in tech including Apple Pay and a possible Apple car. Take a look!
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